Research

• Changes in International Immigration and Internal Native Mobility after Covid-19 in the US (with Giovanni Peri). Journal of Population Economics (2023).

NBER working paper 30811, Boston Fed 66th Economic Conference.

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic produced a significant decline in international immigration to the USA between 2020 and 2021. This paper documents the timing, characteristics, and heterogeneity of the change in immigration across states and economic sectors. Additionally, we describe the trends in internal native mobility in the USA prior to and after the pandemic, investigating whether natives responded to the decrease in immigration by relocating either geographically or across sectors. Despite the substantial drop in international migration, we do not observe any significant changes in native internal mobility. Employing a panel regression and a shift-share IV, we study the effect of foreign immigration, the emergence of remote-work, and changes in labor demand on cross-state native mobility. Our results indicate that the decline in immigration following COVID-19 and the differential availability of remote-work opportunities across sectors and states did not drive changes in natives’ cross- state or cross-sector mobility.

• Does (all) Police Violence Cause De-policing? Evidence from George Floyd and Police Shootings in Minneapolis (with Maya Mikdash). AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112: 170-73.
  
  Abstract: We test for a "Ferguson Effect" by studying how police effort responds to different incidents of police violence. We do so using two settings in Minneapolis: (1) George Floyd's murder, and (2) police-involved shootings. We find that following George Floyd's death, arrests and police-initiated calls decreased by 62 and 69 percent, respectively. By comparison, arrests and police-initiated calls decreased by 3 and 1.5 percent following police-involved shootings. We conclude that incidents of police violence generate "de-policing," and the effect is much larger following highly publicized incidents.
  
  

• The Impact of Police Shootings on Gun Violence and Civilian Cooperation (with Maya Mikdash). accepted at Journal of Public Economics.
  Abstract: This paper studies the effect of police-involved shootings on gun violence and civilian cooperation with police, as proxied by crime reports made via 911 calls. To distinguish between crime reporting and crime incidence, we use administrative data on 911 calls and ShotSpotter data from Minneapolis. Exploiting the variation in the timing and the distance to these incidents, we show that exposure to a police shooting increases gun-related crimes by 5-6 percent, and decreases shots reported by 1-2 percent. Taken together, this implies police shootings reduce civilian crime reports to police by 6-7 percent.

• Violence in Mexico, Return Intentions, and the Integration of Mexican Migrants in the US.

Abstract: This paper studies how violence due to the war on drugs in Mexico affects the social and economic integration of Mexican migrants in the United States. I combine detailed administrative data on Mexican migrants' municipal origins with US Census data on their naturalization, intermarriage, and economic behavior. To instrument for violence in Mexican municipalities, I exploit the pre-war geographic distribution of drug trade organizations within Mexico together with time variation in cocaine supply shocks originating in Colombia. Focusing on migrants who arrived in the US before the war on drugs, I find that ongoing heightened violence significantly increases their propensity to naturalize and marry US citizens, who are particularly naturalized Mexicans. The marriage effects are larger for recent and less educated migrants. However, I find no evidence of significant changes in labor market behavior or human capital accumulation. I argue that these results are driven by a decrease in migrants' intentions to return to Mexico. Analysis using the Mexican Census suggests a reduction in return migration flows to municipalities experiencing heightened violence, which supports this mechanism.

• Policy Impacts under Uncertainty: Evidence from DACA. 

• "Migration of Central American Minors to the United States," Giovanni Peri and Reem Zaiour. EconoFact, June 6, 2023.  

• "Labor Shortages and the Immigration Shortfall," Giovanni Peri and Reem Zaiour. EconoFact, January 11, 2022.

  • Updated  series as of February 2023 here.

  • Featured on: The Economist (Jan 2022; July 2022; June 2024); CNN Global Public Square; CNN Business;  Forbes; Bloomberg; Washington Post; Financial Times; MarketWatch.

• "Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants Would Boost U.S. Economic Growth,"  Giovanni Peri and Reem Zaiour. Center for American Progress, June 14, 2021.

  • Accompanying video here. 

  • Featured on: LA Times; The Hill; Texas PR; UC Davis Office of Research.